Non-food retail footfall in the first full month since the Brexit vote saw a -4% fall on a year ago, reports Ipsos Retail Performance in its latest Retail Traffic Index (RTI). Although there was a year-on-year drop in average retail footfall for all regions of the UK, the size of this negative differential was expected given the strong July last year, when year-on- year growth hit an 11-year high.
It is a sign that the UK high street appears to be weathering the uncertainty following the recent political upheavals well, says Ipsos – month-on-month, the usual July peak materialised, with average weekly footfall +8.5% higher than in June.
The figures might have been better, but July’s heatwave, when the average temperature reached 25.8˚C, caused a -7.4% drop in the week’s footfall YOY. Store footfall in London and the South-east rose steeply, exceeding June’s figure by +12.2%.
In July, average weekly footfall was +8.5% higher than in June, and the week commencing 24th saw the busiest week of the year for retail in all regions, save Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Positively, 56.2% of non-food stores achieved a conversion rate gain on July last year, +5.6% more than the proportion in June.
“Our data shows that the referendum result has not changed shopping behaviour in the month following the vote,” comments Dr Tim Denison, director of retail intelligence. “Though consumer confidence might have crashed in July, retail footfall remained solid, exceeding the average summer uplift of the past five years. We hadn’t expected it to be any different because the Brexit decision has not had any immediate impact on household spending power.
“The Conversion Rate Tracker lends further weight to our view. Though store traffic volumes fell in July, the proportion of stores with more buyers actually rose. We can therefore expect sales figures to be more positive this month, when they are announced in the second week of August.
“Looking to August, we anticipate the gap against last year’s footfall to narrow. Back-to- school campaigns promise to be stronger than ever, sales in fashion wear will continue to attract shoppers and, if all goes well, a feel good factor from the Rio Olympics could spin off into the shops.
“The move to lower bank rates will also help build consumer confidence and encourage further spending. In many respects, August is a holding month. September is the next key month, and retailers will be hard at work planning how to ensure it is a successful month for them.
“Though the headwinds may start to gather as we reach early autumn - demand until then should remain robust post-Brexit and retailers will take every opportunity to make hay while the sun shines.”
