According to BRC-Opinium data, consumer confidence, based on fieldwork conducted on 4-7th this month, was almost 40pts lower than in July.
When consumers were asked about their feeling about the next three months, their view on the state of the economy worsened to -37 in February, down from -34 in January – the fifth consecutive month in which expectations have worsened.
Their outlook on: personal financial situation dropped to -11 in February, down from -4 in January; personal spending on retail rose to -5 in February, up from -9 in January; personal spending overall remained at +4 in February, the same as in January; and personal saving remained at -3 in February, the same as in January.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), says: “People’s expectations of the economy reached a new low, having fallen almost 40pts since July 2024. Even Gen Z (18-27), the most upbeat generation on the economy and their own finances, saw a drop off in optimism.
"There was also a widening gender divide in confidence this month, with women more pessimistic than men about both the economy and their own finances by 13 and 17pts respectively. With many businesses warning of the impact that April’s employer NIC’s increase will have on hiring, and the rising energy price cap pushing up the cost of domestic bills, it is little surprise that many households are worried. And while there was a positive increase in expectations of personal retail spending, this may be largely driven by the expectations of higher prices in the future.
“Expectations of higher prices are not unfounded, with two-thirds of retailers saying prices will have to rise as a result of the £7b in additional costs, including higher employer NICs and a new packaging levy. Almost half of retailers also warned of hiring freezes, with entry-level jobs often among the first to go as they seek any cost efficiencies to help them protect customers from the worst of the rising costs.
"As the Government bill on the future of business rates progresses through Parliament, it is essential that no shop ends up paying more in rates as a result of these reforms, otherwise retailers will face a triple whammy of Budget costs, business rates rises, and new packaging and recycling levies, all of which will filter through to consumer prices.”
