Responding to the latest ONS Retail Sales Index figures, Harvir Dhillon, lead economist at the British Retail Consortium (BRC), says: “The ONS retail sales figures show overall sales growth in September driven by smaller retailers, while activity for larger businesses was more subdued.
"While spending held up better in some areas such as health and beauty, sales of clothing and footwear fell due to the unseasonably warm weather.
"With consumer confidence wobbling, the Chancellor must use the Budget to give consumers and retailers the breathing space they need. The Government has already ratcheted up retail’s tax bill by 20% in the last two years, putting yet more pressure on prices. Every extra penny in taxes and costs will be felt at the checkout. If the Government is serious about revitalising high streets and driving economic growth, it should freeze the business rates multiplier rather than allow April’s 3.5% inflationary increase to go ahead.”
Hai-Ly Nguyen, associate partner at McKinsey & Company, comments: “September’s decline adds pressure before the golden quarter. The ONS links the fall to warm weather hitting autumn and winter clothing, with non-food volumes down 0.4% on the month, even though the three months to September still rose 0.7%.
“Food stores and non-store retailing both helped the quarter at +0.6% and +1.0% respectively over three months but fell in September by -0.4% and −2.2%, with supermarkets easing after a strong July and August, while online-led non-store sales were hit by warm weather and weak autumn clothing.
“McKinsey’s State of the Consumer 2026 research shows consumers remain value-focused – more than three-quarters still trade down, and many are deferring or rethinking discretionary purchases, including apparel, before peak trading.
“The run-up to Christmas decides the year’s profits for many non-food retailers like fashion and consumer electronics. If shoppers buy less on each trip, competition for every basket will be tougher, and margins are already tight going in. We could see discounts start earlier or go deeper as retailers race for Black Friday and holiday baskets.”
