According to the latest CSIL World Furniture Outlook, world furniture production reached an estimated $472b in 2025, with international trade accounting for nearly $180b – around 1% of all the manufactured goods traded worldwide. Guilia Taveggia, senior researcher at the Milan-based economic research institute, shares more of the headlines …
Asian countries – above all China, Vietnam, and emerging players in South East Asia – have consolidated their role as the world’s production backbone. Europe and North America remain powerful consumer markets, but an increasing share of what they buy is made elsewhere.
Against this backdrop, furniture has increasingly become a global business, in which supply chains, production platforms and consumer markets span multiple continents. For companies and institutions alike, understanding the sector today necessarily requires a global analytical perspective.
Over the past decade, internationalisation has intensified dramatically. All the leading markets have shown a greater degree of openness, with advanced economies such as the US, Germany, the UK and France continuing to expand their dependence on imports, with import penetration ratios surpassing 40–50% in many cases.
But in recent years, the global picture has become less predictable. International trade of furniture is in a state of unprecedented uncertainty. Trade policy and tariff unpredictability seems likely to continue.
CSIL’s preliminary estimates for 2025 indicate a very slight growth of world trade of furniture compared to the previous year in current USD. Still, the effects of tariffs introduced in mid-October will become evident this year. Future prospects are negatively affected by trade policy uncertainty that remains high in the absence of clear and durable agreements among trading partners.
In response to this climate, CSIL introduced a new measurement tool, the Country Vulnerability Index/Furniture Export (FEXVI). This composite indicator quantifies the susceptibility of a country's furniture industry to external shocks by analysing trade dependencies and competitive positions.
High FEXVI scores (up to 100%) indicate high risk. Countries such as Cambodia, Mexico and Vietnam exhibit the highest FEXVI scores, often linked to their significant export shares destined for the US. These findings underscore how geopolitical tensions and policy unpredictability are now central considerations for investment decisions and business strategy across the furniture sector.
While trade flows are becoming more intricate, the outlook for global demand remains cautiously positive. After a period of stagnation linked to inflation, high interest rates and weakening consumer confidence, furniture consumption is expected to gradually recover over the next two years. Growth will likely be modest, but it will be geographically differentiated – the Asia–Pacific region is set to remain the most dynamic market, while North America and Europe are projected to grow at a slower pace.
In this landscape, companies, institutions and fair organisers must navigate a world where global dynamics intersect with local strengths. In a sector where uncertainty has become the new normal, the ability to decode global patterns will be essential. The companies that succeed will be those able to combine international awareness with strategic agility – adapting to new markets, new rules and new competitive landscapes while continuing to innovate in products, processes and design.
