Cardlytics’ latest State of Spend report, analysing March to August spending across 2023, 2024 and 2025, shows that retail spend grew 8% YoY in 2024, before slowing to 4% in 2025.
It indicates that spending across home-related categories has not disappeared, but is becoming more selective and increasingly concentrated in fewer, more considered buying moments.
Cardlytics says: "Across discretionary categories such as fashion, DIY and sporting goods, transactions declined by 3% to 7% in 2025, as consumers reduced how often they shopped. At the same time, average basket values rose by 2% to 6%, as spending was consolidated into fewer, more deliberate purchases. Taken together, trends across 2024 and 2025 point to a more selective consumer – one that is likely to shape a more constrained retail environment heading into summer 2026."
The report suggests spending is now driven more by maintenance, replacement and clear need than by aspiration or upgrade: in homewares, value homeware sales rose 9% in 2024 and 5% in 2025; and high street furniture slowed from 6% growth in 2024 to 2% in 2025. Across the category, transactions softened while ATV rose, pointing to fewer but more considered purchases.
"Fewer trips define essential spending," Cardlytics explains. "The clearest shift is in essential categories, where spending has remained stable, but behaviour has changed.
The pattern across 2024 and 2025 is clear. Spending has not disappeared, but participation has declined. Growth is increasingly being driven by fewer shopping trips, fewer categories and a smaller group of active shoppers. Where engagement remains, it is concentrated in areas that offer clear value, regular use or lower-cost entry points.
"If these trends persist into summer 2026, retailers should expect a more selective market, where success depends less on driving demand and more on being chosen."
Lucy Whittemore, SVP UK partnerships at Cardlytics, says: “Consumers haven’t stopped spending – but they are becoming far more selective about when and where they do it. What we saw across 2024 and 2025 is a clear shift from frequent, habitual shopping to fewer, more deliberate decisions, with each purchase carrying more weight.
"As we look ahead to summer 2026, that fundamentally changes the challenge for retailers. Growth will not come from more demand, but from winning a place in a smaller number of shopping moments. The brands that succeed will be those that can demonstrate clear value and show up at the right time, because there are fewer chances to do so.”
