Widespread disruption to global trade continues to cloud the outlook for the industry’s economic growth, reports Giulia Taveggia, partner and senior researcher at Milan-based economic research institute, CSIL …
In 2025, global trade policy was marked by heightened uncertainty due to shifting tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and changing trade relationships among major economies. Businesses faced challenges in planning investments and managing supply chains because of unpredictable policy changes and the risk of new trade barriers.
Tariff shock turned out to be smaller than initially expected. Households and businesses front-loaded consumption and investment in anticipation of higher tariffs, giving a temporary boost to global activity early in the year. Trade flows partially rerouted toward third countries.
This also applies to the international furniture trade, showing almost no growth in 2025, with the effects of tariffs introduced in October becoming evident in 2026.
Future prospects are negatively affected by the war in the Middle East, by the complex geopolitical situation and trade policy uncertainty that remains persistently high.
The main furniture exporting country is China, followed at a distance by Vietnam, Poland, Italy, and Germany. In 2025, China's furniture exports decreased by 6% in current US$. While the US remained the country's most important export market, shipments to the US contracted by a double-digit percentage. On the other hand, exports to Europe, South America, the Middle East and Africa have increased.
The leading furniture importers are the US, Germany, the UK, France, and the Netherlands (a trading hub).
Over the course of 2025, the US average effective tariff rate for furniture increased substantially. As a result, US imports fell by nearly 10%, and the ratio of imports to consumption has therefore decreased by approximately three percentage points. This pattern is not evident globally, suggesting a reconfiguration of trade flows.
The CSIL World Furniture Outlook 2026/2027 report, issued in June 2026, assumes that the international scenario will be as follows: World GDP will grow by 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 (annual percentage change in real terms); growth in advanced economies will be 1.8% in 2026, and 1.7% in 2027; and growth in emerging and developing economies will be 3.9% in 2026, and 4.2% in 2027.
The war in the Middle East and the world geopolitical landscape are a major concern for the world economy in 2026, with global growth projected to slow to 3.1% even if the conflict is limited in duration. According to the IMF, downsize risks dominate the outlook. A longer conflict, worsening geopolitical fragmentation and continuing trade tensions could further weaken growth.
Renewed pressure on the world economy stems from disruptions to maritime trade and damage to energy infrastructure. Together, these developments have caused a sharp increase in energy and raw material costs, fuelling inflation, weakening sentiment, and slowing household spending and business investment.
Across the world (100 countries), after a challenging 2025, furniture consumption is expected to stagnate in 2026 in real terms, with a marginal recovery in 2027.
CSIL’s World Furniture Outlook 2026/2027 report provides an overview of the global furniture industry, combining industry statistics, trade data and macroeconomic indicators.
